Friday, March 09, 2018

Nothing runs like a Ford except an Elliott

Tons of politicos from all different colours and parties have been asking me what are my thoughts on the provincial Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario leadership race for 2018, with a vote is not even a pure one member one vote styled, rather equally weighted by a 100 point electoral district riding across 124 electoral district ridings in order to win the leadership race, this makes the vote into more of an electoral college vote rather than a popular vote from a one man one vote result. Where an electoral district riding has less than 100 members, a single vote there is worth one electoral vote, where there is more than 100 members, an electoral vote there is worth a percentage of votes overall, which might actually mess up the value of the numbers given at the bottom, most likely between 2-5% plus minus give or take. Not sure if Patrick Brown will be on or off the ballot, as he was supposed to be left on being take out after the deadline, a fifth name of which none remaining on it would likely wish it to stay, we shall have to assume it will still be only four on the ballot being Tanya Granic Allen, Christine Elliott, Doug Ford, and Caroline Mulroney Lapham, all of whom found their way down there at the Markham Hilton Hotel and Convention Centre in Markham.

Three major factors become obviously in play throughout the affair, first whether the provincial party could run away from the shadow of their former leader and Opposition Leader Patrick Brown or mimick his successful balance act that held up only months before the election. Second, was the new ideology going to remain that was devoid of any kind of conservatism via Elliot or Mulroney, or would fiscal and social conservatism along with democratic reform and civil libertarian ideals mix into a populist altright message against political correctness via Ford or Granic Allen. Third, were those major campaign issues with created splits and crisis such as carbon tax pricing, sex ed curriculum, and the cleaning of internal party chaos, collusion, and corruption which created temporary voting blocs for those single issue voters, which artificially increased and decreased the numbers for certain teams in the race, though at the end of the day, nothing runs like a Ford except an Elliott.

Those other 4 remaining leadership candidates outside Brown who I list in order lowest to highest to be in the first round were 
hard right socon Tanya Granic Allen fourth at 12%, soft right redtor Caroline Mulroney Lapham third at 13%, hard right fiscon Doug Ford second at 36%, and soft right redtor Christine Elliott first at 39% on the first ballot with the first of two possible kingmakers in Granic Allen dropped off for a second ballot, next round leaves Mulroney Lapham third at 13% with no gain being the absolute ideologic opposite of Granic Allen, Elliott second at 39% increasing slightly as the more sellable choice, and Ford first at 48% on the first ballot increasing massively as the candidate for change, finally Ford second at 48% is overtaken by Elliott first at 52% on the third ballot in the race to replace Brown his big bad Peoples Guarantee platform. But does it all really matter, the Ontario Tories still rot to its very marrow of the bone is dying if not dead, have now publicly shown themselves to be what everyone in the know always knew it to be, the party of corruption protected by lawyers and lobbyists all lined up to take their lick from the porkbarrelled gravy train. With little to no difference between any of the Big Three parties at Queens Park, one looks to cleaner and clearer provinces like Saskatchewan, unlike even the dirty Tory politics Jason Kenney has participated next door over in Alberta, real principled leadership from the likes of Elwin Hermanson, Brad Wall, and right now Scott Moe have shown us that burning down parties of corruption like the Progressive Conservatives to rebuild more righteous parties for people might be the right way to go in the end!

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Ouellet Chips Off the Old Bloc Québécois

Martine Ouellet should have learned well from former leaders Lucien Bouchard, Gilles Duceppe, the late Jean Lapierre, the 25 year ten term Dean of the House Louis Plamondon, or even recently departed Rhéal Fortin, who is one of the seven Bloc Québécois members splitting from the current party of three to form Groupe Parlementaire Québécois to solely advancing the cause being to defend the provincial interests of Québec in Ottawa. Both Duceppe and Bouchard understood the heart of the Québécois was never to leave Canada, but to make Ottawa understand Québec was a founding partner of a balanced Confederation that needed to be restored again, foundationally key for a rainbow coalition movement that merged Conservatives and Liberals in June of 1991 over the failed Beau Risque based Meech Lake constitutional accord of former Tory Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, which would have recognized Québec as a distinct society. Ouellet seems to be more from the side of thinking of the radical Jacques Parizeau over a pragmatic René Lévesque, apparently one top of these sins Ouellet is also intransigent, authoritarian, and has a poor leadership style, that and she refuses to run political business in Ottawa from Ottawa rather than currently in Québec City and Montréal without the help of the grassroots, which usually ends out bad for any populist or regionalist party representing its people!

If this all sounds familiar, it should as Ouellet chips off the old Bloc Québécois while the new Parti Québécois does the same under Jean-François Lisée, all of this was covered by us mere few months ago with a similar light suggestion that Québec will continue to move towards a more palatable alternative like the Liberals federally and Coalition Avenir Québec provincially if both indépendantistes and séparatistes refuse to lower the bar to being autonomistes and souverainistes within Confederation.

This weakened Bloc is not that strong party that was formed as a conterrevolutionary to the corruption of the Mulroney Tories in May of 1990 when it split from the federal Progressive Conservatives, that became Her Majesty’s Official Loyal Opposition in 1993, which held the majority of seats in the province from 1993 to 2008 for six elections, and the balance of power in minority parliaments between 2004 and 2011 for seven elections, focussed on their first responsibility in promoting Québec, showing the harmful effects of federalism on the lives of Québécois, and fighting without compromise against corruption in Ottawa as it showed in 2004 with the Martin Liberal Adscamsponsorshipgate. No, after an Orange Crush in 2011 where it lost official party status and a Red Scare in 2015 where Québécois voted en masse for the familial enemy of their state, a Bloc led by an Ouellet so afraid of the risk in running and possible losing a byelection in Lac-Saint-Jean being the old riding of Bloc cofounder Lucien Bouchard, this Bloc so fearful of another backlash from its own Québécois, when they look to who the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance treated Joe Clark and Stockwell Day after leadership challenges, they see how they have treated their last six ad hoc leaders with even more contempt and less respect. Just as the Bloc fractions its factions in half, so goes the Parti Québécois which only now loses its raison dêtre on the eve of its provincial general election, the grander question as Québécois allow its electorate to vote centre left federally and centre right provincially by way of current trend, do either of these political options have the best interests of its constituents at the vital beat of its active heart, or shall we see another plus ça change plus c'est la même chose moment that bring us back sooner than later to Meech Lake?

Friday, September 22, 2017

Will the Minority that Merkel forms be Nationalist or Socialist?

Angela Merkel will continue to be the German Chancellor after the federal election of the 19th Bundestag Sunday night, however with an estimated higher turnout projected and a surge from sixth to second of the populist and nationalist Alternative for Germany as the past opposition party of the Social Democrats drops down, the Christian Democrats can safely believe they will go from less than half the vote to a little more than one third from 41 and 238 seats to 35 for 241 seats while the Social Democrats lose about five points from 25 and 193 seats to 20 for 149 seats thus allowing the Alternative to go from less than five points with zero seats to 17 for 131 seats. So, as you can see both the former opposition Social Democrats and the so to be opposition Alternative for Germany will be almost equal in percentage of votes and seats in the Bundestag with Merkel and the Christian Democrats falling and failing to not only gain a majority, but gain enough vote and seats in this projected minority to be a strong partner in any kind of government without a kingmaker looking over their shoulder likely in the form of the SDP or AFG. Yet, the CDU and CSU union made it clear in this election they would not cede to either the far left to centre demands to end the coordinated social market economic miracle and expand the welfare state bureaucracy while rejecting the far right to centre demands to oppose to Islam and open door refugee immigration via reasonable accommodation and stop financial support and loss of national sovereignty to the European Union via continental integration.

For the first time during the seventeen year Merkel era, German Christian Democrats must now decide which part of their balanced centrist grand coalition program gets tilted over towards, do they move rightward towards the Nationalists or leftward towards the Socialists?

Germany might see neither of these in that Merkel nor the CDU and CSU union wish to lose their fiscally conservative and socially progressive agenda for the sake of holding grand power, rather cobbling together minor concessions with pro EU fringe parties like the classically liberal Free Democrats and environmentally responsible Greens trading give or take 150 seats they gain for major cabinet posts seems to be the more realistic path forward to stable governance as they come together with give or take 390 seats in a Bundestag of 630. With the math now aside, the real question is does Merkel start emphasizing real Christian Democratic third way politics in the radical centrist spirit of Konrad Adenauer and its traditional values of life, liberty, and leadership both strong and solid which could easily counter the grassroots democratic populism of the AFG and the labour union cries of economic inequality coming from the SDP along with a Soziale Marktwirtschaft Wirtschaftswunder solution for the FDP and environmental free enterprise marketeering solution for the BDG, while still leaving the open centrist position to get back to a more principled conservative right to centre as we move from her fourth to fifth term. Whether to choose identity or ideology, both Christian Democracy and Merkel need to figure out who they are now before their small timeframe of power to make change disappears into the infinity of space and beyond, leaving a very confused Germany that knows less of what it stands for after her chancellorship than even before it.

Monday, July 31, 2017

Why the Conservatives in Ontario cannot win inside and outside their party

And here in Ontario instead of simply having a smaller, less intrusive and interventionist, government that allows people to live and let live while eliminating job killing regulations, one that makes life more affordable for a working middle class drowning in the deficit and debt while the rising cost of living, housing, food, taxes, on top of those skyrocketing hydro rates taking us further from an excellent quality of life citizens expect, we have a government that refuses to just focus on just managing governmental taxes, services, and spending properly, one that carefully supports reliable healthcare and quality education that links us to better job creation and stronger economic development, that makes hydro more affordable, jobs more plentiful, and with more opportunity for everyone here everyday in everyway on the matters that impact them directly by the decisions made by a government which simply put needs to just get out of the way of the business of its citizens. This is a dangerous set of policy idea framework politically that none of the Big Three parties at Queen's Park are neither actively supporting of nor committing towards making happen, as we move further into 21st Century and closer to a Vision 2020 for Ontario that blindly will be missed by the supposed leadership we have, mainly because this would reduce the size of the bureaucratic swamp we have created full of monsters we must starve of the never ending tax dollar it feeds upon to live and ever making governmental waste it creates as its only byproduct in life. Being a grassroots political analyst, consultant, and strategist, I know just what seems to be rankling for the grassroots rank and file membership of all the Big Three provincial political parties about the leadership that is lacking in their ideological political vehicle of choice at Queen's Park in Toronto, at the current right now as we speak all three inherently have an elitist disconnect with between each other so wide a chasm to cross allowing for disillusioned and disgruntled Kathleen Wynne led Ontario Liberal Party, Patrick Brown led Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, and Andrea Horwath led Ontario New Democratic Party members to look abroad, either going fringe, independent, or even just tiring off the same old status quo political situation and staying home to rest from the rust.

Brown and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives have an extra problem entirely different than both the Wynne and the Ontario Liberals or Andrea and the Ontario New Democrats, unlike both ladies and their members, Brown and the Ontario Tories more times than not do not see eye to eye on not just intellectual policy but also emotional personality, which at least the other two party leaders seem to jive together in somewhat of a coherent political beat from governance to campaign for a memorable partisan rhythm, Brown and provincial conservatives at that obligatory point of a critical level do not jive in Ontario.

Pat, and his Ontario PC leadership style and team, by apparently alleged actions such as those seen at the primary nomination level in electoral district ridings where undemocratic selection by the leader not democratic election of candidates of record by the membership has led to seeing fringe splinter parties from the grassroots popping up alround Patrick and the Ontario Tories, inspired by the likes of Preston Manning and the Reform Party of Canada exactly 30 years ago this October, all united on a fiscally conservative platform they see lacking in a Brown led Tory party that supports a carbon tax, but divided in areas in which their special interest group supported leadership have biased them closer to, where two special interest groups being the civil libertarian Ontario Landowners Association and socially conservative Campaign Life Coalition who previously endorsed Brown and the Ontario PCs now back the Ontario Trillium and Ontario Alliance parties along with other various grassroots factions within the small c conservative movement without a big C Conservative Party at the provincial level such as the constitutional nationalist, environmental conservationist, democratic reformer, or regional sovereignist out in the wilderness now wondering far and wide for their own. Quite obvious now, Brown never believed in the diverse, tolerant, and inclusive big tent party Patrick originally ran his leadership race and campaign on, along with many other promises Brown made to all those special interest groups for their endorsement, who all of which have now turned against him and created fringe splinter parties to siphon off as many votes as they can with their single issue causes, instead of apologizing for causing splits in the traditional conservative fabric, Patrick has decided to sew a whole different colour of patchwork to create a modern conservative flag none of these groups even dare ever recognize. Such a gamble for a neophyte leader who spent his whole political career on Parliament Hill in Ottawa amongst the other backbenchers, from a principled conservative who supported and voted for the most socially conservative legislation one could imagine as part of Team Stephen Harper to becoming such a pragmatic conservative who talked and walked a version of conservatism provincially even the most fiscally conservative supporter does not identify as anything close to such the conservative entity they voted for only two years ago federally, that is the kind of reverse dogwhistled cognitive dissonance Brown, an Opposition Leader pollsters say is still largely unknown substance can ill afford with a general election less than a year to go until his next race.

Friday, June 09, 2017

Three Ways to Burn Fat and Build Muscle Fast and Furious

Forget about your carbon footprint, think about your carbon mouthprint, did you know that respiration being the process of moving air into and out of the lungs to facilitate gas exchange with the internal environment, mostly by bringing in oxygen and flushing out carbon dioxide, also is one in which oxygen is used to breakdown foods for energy and produces carbon dioxide as a waste product via cellular respiration. So, right off the top simply breathing more harder and heavier can make you burn more calories thus white adipose tissue cells or body fat and help build muscle, but did you also know past exercising hard, eating right, and sleeping well, you can also kill adipocytes or body fat by drinking water which also helps you bulk up and lean out on svelte muscle too. Water is the energy transformation medium that flows through your arteries, veins, and capillaries to carry nutrients to your cells and filling the space that is your body, forming the structures of protein and glycogen in, transporting unwanted waste out, and keeping you hydrated to keep going and moving forward because that is how winning is done!

Okay, so you have two of three ways to burn fat and build muscle fast and furious, but what praytell is the number three easy way to do both, be fit, and have fun?

Stress less for fit success, those who like I continue thundering out testosterone, will pay the price in having to chill out more or risk gaining the beer keg around the middle instead of the six pack. Managing stress and thus balanced hormone levels is the main key to burning fat specifically, however also helps to building muscle as well, elevation of the hormone cortisol released from your adrenal gland in response to stress triggers a need for survival, where one burns muscle and stores fat to protect and preserve your body via gluconeogenesis where sugar is made from the amino acids built into that hard earned muscle tissue, for more testosterone dominant men the middle becomes not so fit as a fiddle, for more estrogen dominant women the bottom got them. Save your muscle and strip your fat by breathing harder and heavier, drinking more water colder better, and stressing less to keep that muscle and lose that fat more fast and furious than ever before while joining the fight for our life club!

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Soo will definitely go Blue as the Ontario Tories take Sault Ste. Marie

Just as the Province of Ontario dislike Kathleen Wynne, the City of Sault Ste. Marie dislike Debbie Amaroso, with similar reasons being why Christian Provenzano is the Mayor now and Charles Sousa should be the Premier, but as former Liberal MPP David Orazietti looked to be replaced by Amaroso, a very strong Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario candidate there in Ross Romano, running along with him in the byelection are Ontario New Democratic Party candidate Joe Krmpotich, and the Green Party candidate Kara Flannigan, leading fringe with perennial Pauper John Turmel, Libertarian Gene Balfour, None of the Above Noneof Zabove, yet without a candidate from the Trillium Party candidate despite becoming the fourth party in Queens Park just last week amongst the fringe. Over half the general election vote makes up byelections, top issue for this byelection being the leadership of the Wynne Liberals and whether the Soo trusted it or wanted change has been the biggest talk on the street. The First of June seems more easy than most to call, as the Ontario Tories despite a hiccup losing a caucus member and under a dark cloud over talk of fixed nomination races still have the edge over the government of the day, so Romano will likely gain 40% and win the seat, this changes from third to first thus third becomes second being Krmpotich and the Neodemos place second with 30 percent of the vote, Amaroso and the Grits take up third with 20 in percentage, as Flannigan and the Greens finish with fourth at more or less than 2% for party funding, from the fringe I actually think the fight for fifth gathering less than 1% of the vote starts with the battle of the high profile odd names with None of the Above Zabove will get sixth and the Pauper Turmel seventh, while Libertarian Balfour ends out in eighth.

Sault Ste. Marie gives the Ontario Tories a foothold in the North to call their own, without this riding going into the general election next year it would be hard to believe they would even have a chance unseating the Grits from their powerbase in Toronto, as the Ontario Liberals will now have to divide its preelection spending not just in their Big City but also the Great White North.

A very old and tired message was flogged again by loyalists of Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals as their political team of Queens Park insiders tried all their very best to scare the votes out from the voters of the Soo, but it backfired as the ageist threats of not having experience at their cabinet table levelled by Amaroso towards Romano came back like a boomerang across the community, giving Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown and his party a boost from the byelection protest vote. Andrea Horwath and her Ontario New Democrats on their other hand must be feeling quite the opposite, being the former default vote for the people of Sault Ste. Marie being a riding for unionized labour, heavy metal, hard rock, and city of steel and iron, if they cannot win or even compete to win in such a region as this, any party has a chance to change the position of the current third party at Queens Park which opens up the opposition for the first time in decades. The government party is being protested again but not heavily enough right now, we have to wait under year to see just how much the present opposition parties which break from the Legislature and those outside the House in the future can gain in the next twelve months to see where exactly the Soo and the rest of you across the province are then.

Friday, May 26, 2017

Conservatives will likely stay Harperite Light with Andrew Scheer

Tons of politicos from all different colours and parties have been asking me what are my thoughts on the federal Conservative Party of Canada leadership race for 2017 and who do I think is going to win it all, pretty hard question to answer when this vote is not even a pure one member one vote styled rather equally weighted by electoral district riding 100 points allocated per. Thus in order to win the leadership race, a candidate had to receive at least 16,901 points being a pure majority of the points gather from the ranked ballot one member one vote basis, so again did not make the guesstimation of the occasion any more easier to get done. But then after striking out Kevin Oleary and then realizing we had to leave him in as he was on the ballot, I went on to add the next lucky thirteen as they appeared on the ballot being Chris Alexander, Maxime Bernier, Steven Blaney, Michael Chong, Kellie Leitch, Pierre Lemieux, Deepak Obhrai, Erin Otoole, Rick Peterson, Lisa Raitt, Andrew Saxton, Andrew Scheer, and Brad Trost, all of whom I will have now heard both at the debate back home in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound and there at the Toronto Congress Centre in Toronto.

Three major factors become obviously in play throughout the affair, first was whether the federal party wanted to run away from the shadow of their former leader and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper or emulate him once more which allowed for minor division between Progressive East and Reformed West members and their candidates, second was the new ideology going to remain similar being a balance carefully between fiscal and social conservatism with democratic reform and civil libertarian ideals mixed within or was the populist altright message against political correctness and forced immigration going to be another pillar within that mix, and third was major campaign issues with created splits and crisis such as supply management and traditional marriage created temporary voting blocs for those single issue voters which artificially increased and decreased the numbers for certain teams in the race.

Though Kevin Oleary was on the ballot, I knew he would come out below as he suspended his campaign the other 13 remaining leadership candidates who I list in order lowest to highest to be in the first round were Rick Peterson thirteenth at 0.1%, Andrew Saxton twelfth at 0.2%, Chris Alexander eleventh at 0.3%, Steven Blaney tenth at 0.3%, Deepak Obhrai ninth at 0.5%, Lisa Raitt eighth at 1.5%, Kellie Leitch seventh at 6.5%, Brad Trost sixth at 9%, Erin Otoole fifth at 11%, Pierre Lemieux fourth at 12%, Michael Chong third at 15%, Maxime Bernier second at 19%, and Andrew Scheer first at 25%. Let me explain them all now starting with Peterson to Obhrai as they were all fringe outback players adding up to 1%, Raitt carried some weight for double and a half of that, Leitch still had a huge Trumpesque altright following her around for more than half a decade in percentage, Trost carries that heavy socon burden that comes with about a decade percentage in support, Otoole just for being True Blue Ontario Tory get over a decade in percentage, Lemieux takes the flag, family, and faith crowd for over a decade in percentage too, Chong collects every Progressive Eastern vote available from Ontario to the Atlantic for a decade and a half percent, Bernier too picks up every single civil libertarian vote across the nation for almost two decade percent, and finally Scheer being Harper like as Harper Light from all True Blue Tories get two decades and a half percent from across the nation to make this vote go all the way to about 12. Knock off the last six candidates, Raitt vote goes to Chong for 16.5%+, Leitch vote goes to Bernier for 25.5%+, Trost vote goes to Scheer for 34%+, Otoole vote goes to Bernier for 36.5%+, Lemieux vote goes to Scheer for 46%+, Chong vote goes to Bernier for 51.5+, so theoretically Bernier edges out votes from Scheer but obviously 46 plus 51.5 does not make 100 and I think we are going to see a twelve round plus vote ending in between 45 and 52 for both that could very well become a 50.1% to 49.9% race between Scheer and Bernier with Chong, Lemieux, and Otoole being the kingmakers in the end of this shootout to replace Harper.