Monday, January 27, 2014

Tory fleche bleu points towards an electoral strategic response to a Québécois Neo Demo ecraser orange

Conervatives in Québec hold out much hope this 2015 election year in going beyond its five seats with potential territory in the northern and eastern parts of la belle province from the Vieux Ville to the St. Lawrence’s south shore, after 59 seats out of 75 available went orange in 2011 via a Jack Layton sweep by the socialist Nouveau Parti Démocratique, who also replaced the Bloc being the former champion of Québécois interests who lost 44 of the 47 seats it had in the House before that ill fated election leaving it with four. Twenty three potential ridings where temporary footholds to be translated into permanent strongholds seems to be targeted are Beauce, Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix, Beauport-Limoilou, Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Compton-Stanstead, Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Jonquière, Jonquière-Alma, Lac-Saint-Jean, Lac-Saint-Louis, Lévis-Bellechasse, Lévis-Lotbinière, Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, Louis-Hébert, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Mégantic-L'Érable, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, Pontiac, Portneuf-Jacques Cartier, Richmond-Arthabaska, and Shefford, five of which are held by MPs Maxime Bernier, Steven Blaney, Denis Lebel, Christian Paradis, and Jacques Gourde. The federal Tory warroom must be in full red alert mode, trying hard to figure who to flip those orange ridings into blue districts, especially in  traditionally Union Nationale areas where anti union and government intervention support is well over into their side of the spectrum and Prime Minister Stephen Harper is seen as the reincarnation of Maurice Duplessis himself.

All in all, this brand new Tory fleche bleu points towards an electoral strategic response to a Québécois Neo Demo ecraser orange flashflood that no one was prepared for, nor seems to be able to preserve themselves against just as the Bloc has aptly shown us since.

Will this blitz even work for the Conservatives in Québec, as the rise by the less than a year old Justin Trudeau Liberals and its Québec seven seat caucus is not working while the Tom Mulcair Neo Demos looks to be the clear alternative to the Harper Tory government and has positioned itself well as the next government in waiting, adding the Bloc and then any powerful populist or libertarian leaning independents like André Arthur into the mix then anything is possible. Probable results can be found if, and I am sure the federal Tory warroom is pushing to make this happen, any candidate in Québec can get over the 30% mark because that is the point when a riding tips over to favour that candidate and party holding that magic number. Tories in Ottawa know Harper needs Québec to counteract possible losses in Ontario by the Liberals, or perhaps it will be its seats and more in Ontario to counteract its continued losses in Québec by the Neo Demos, either way knowing the Pacific West to Prairies is theirs and the Atlantic East to North is not allows them now to be thinking what to do and how to get it done in Central Canada as they are.