Simcoe North stays Tory but no bounce for Brown
Eight is enough candidates to vie for the vacant seat in Simcoe North Ontario this early September, upon the sudden resignation of Garfield Dunlop for a quite arguably unnecessary provincial byelection, in the middle of a similarly quite arguably unnecessarily long federal election campaign. These candidates are the Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario Leader Patrick Brown, Ontario Liberal Party candidate Fred Larsen, Ontario New Democratic Party candidate Elizabeth Van Houtte, Green Party of Ontario candidate Valerie Powell, Ontario Libertarian Party candidate Darren Roskam, the Leader of the New Reform Party of Ontario James Gault, the Founder of the Peoples Political Party of Ontario Kevin Clarke, the Founder and Leader of the Pauper Party of Ontario John Turmel, all having been campaigning and debating for almost one whole month. Already the federal campaign has made the Ontario fight one between Grit Premier Kathleen Wynne by extension for the federal Liberal Party of Canada leader Justin Trudeau and the Prime Minister of Canada and Conservative Party of Canada leader Stephen Harper who previously counted provincial Ontario Tory leader Patrick Brown amongst his backbench in the House of Commons, thus naturally the Ontario Tories and Grits have found their red versus blue narrative easy to use on the campaign trail so far.
But the New Democrats, amongst the other four third parties vying for space, are the ones with the Orange Crush federally that seem to speak to a lack of mandate by Premier Wynne and her Ontario Liberal government in decisions amongst them being the creation of an Ontario Real Retirement Pension Plan and the privatized sellout of Hydro Ontario without any mention publically thereof during the last provincial election by Kathleen and company just a little more than a year ago.
That said expect the normal 50,474 valid total voters from the 2014 general election to drop by around half, as it usually does for byelections and especially ones called during the summer, but in so far as results I think politicos will be excited and yet expectant at the same time when they come after the third of September. Brown and his Tories will gain 47.0% and win the seat, Van Houtte and the New Democrats will respectfully get 23.1 percent of the vote for a second place showing, Larsen and the Grits will place third with 21.9 in percentage, as Powell and the Greens will maintain fourth with 5.6%, plus Gault, the leader of New Reform, fifth with 1.3%, also Roskam and the Libertarians finishing sixth with 0.7%, then Clarke, the founder of the Peoples, finishing seventh with 0.3%, and finally Turmel, the leader and founder of the Pauper, finishing eighth with 0.05%. So at the end of the day, Simcoe North stays Tory but no bounce for Brown as he would like mainly because he did not heed the advice of Wynne in the first place, but maybe he likes it like that as Patrick continues to sneak under the radar and flip over the expectations held out for him by the critics at current.
Is that body fat rule for seven pounds or seven percent?
Overall body fat does not burn as fast as overall body weight, losing weight should not be the goal as more likely the hard gained muscle you made is the weight you paid in full when losing improperly, plus the closer you get towards your fat burning goal then it becomes harder to burn your fat stores and lose those extra pounds and percentages. At this stage, there is not much in the way of your flab over ab battle of the bulge as the war with weight goes, your exercise is down to a near science by increasing your daily physical activity with a regular strength resistance and cardio functional conditioning regime to build muscle, and your nutrition too is as clean and clear as it gets by decreasing your daily caloric intake with at least three square calorie restrictive portioned meals each over ninety percent good foods and under ten not so much day in and day out to burn fat. This just becomes a way of life where one lives, just as when in Rome live as Romans do, yet if this reads as Greek to all you, then be as one in Sparta and thus be Spartan with your life, which leads one towards either the seven pounds or percentage fat rule.
So they ask, what is that fat rule for seven pounds or seven percent, as there is a massive difference between them both.
The quick and dirty is the seven pounds body fat rule is for all year around maintenance to reduce the risk of anti inflammatory arthritis, back pain, some forms of cancer, diabetes, and heart disease, as well as other protections towards positive overall health, where you never gain more than seven pounds over your optimal weight and continually work to get back to and under that place, while the seven percent body fat rule is for those special occasions, such as the wedding, reunion, or vacation, where you want to be at your finest tip top svelte shaped self but also recognize that seven percent body fat up to twenty is healthy with males is the equivalent of thirteen percent body fat up to thirty is healthy on females, who must hold more essential fat due to normal physiological difference in natural body type. I personally when able physically always follow the seven pounds rule in the offseason starting November the 1st while all my fitness and health fellows bulk up as my own daily macros of 3,000 cals goes 50% prots, 30% carb, and 20% fat with a cheat a week and the seven percent rule in the onseason starting March the 1st when all those fellows go lean out as my daily plan of 1,700 cals goes 50% prots, 30% fats, and 20% carbs, with more take around workouts plus refeeds and slowly drop towards big events, along with a supplement of whey in the day, casein at night, and BCAA or EAAs everyday, that kind of commitment to consistency on calorie, weight, and fat deficit by keeping it both simple and smart yet reasonable and real, which I think is the exact way people want things in life if they are really honest with themselves. As I always say to others who ask, you are not trying hard to lose weight, but just fat off your body, weight is good as it does include muscle, knowing your ideal weight being where you feel good about yourself is key, but knowing how to lose or burn the fat, while still actively keep or build the muscle, is even more important at the end of the day.
The Tory Tortoise without principles or policy might lose by a minority hare
After watching the first national debate between all four national parties being the Conservatives, New Democrats, Liberal, and Greens, I must positively admit outright that something different and wrong must be happening inside the federal Tory campaign according to its debate preparedness shown through its leader and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, not sure if uberconfident Jenni Byrne, Ray Novak, Guy Giorno, Jason Macdonald, or Dustin Vanvugt are bubbling too much but someone inside the bunker is not keeping up enough with the realities beyond and someone else with much sounder political instincts may soon have take over the reigns, close the classroom for personal development, and force Harper outside for recess with the other citizens of Canada to get back in touch with the real world. Slow and steady wins the race as Tory the Tortoise has done so winningly the past three elections, using the pragmatic Machiavellian tools of statecraft via ingenuity and trickery without inspiration or ambition to win a weak minority in 2006, stronger one in 2008, then finally their cherished majority in 2011 which they whittled and piddled away as the national agenda drove it rather than it driving the national agenda which runs contrary to even the rules of engagement for incremental conservatism bypassing the ideas and implementation both difficult and divisive. Those heady days of being the alternative to decadent, bureaucratic, and authoritarian government that promised to bring transparency, accountability, and honesty from Wellington Street and the backroom, led by the loyal Doug Finley, Ian Brodie, Patrick Muttart, Sandra Buckler, Carolyn Stewart Olsen, and Dimitri Soudas, to our front porch and mainstreet were quickly switched from campaign assets into governmental liabilities via its various miscues and missteps over the past decade and simply replaced by a shrug of the burdened shoulder of another top down elitist government that had become simply put Ottawashed.
The Tory Tortoise without principles or policy might lose by a minority hare, either a charismatic personality led New Demo, Liberal, or Bloc via a long term coalition of the desperately willing or last minute tidal wave of change, making a fable by Aesop a reality by default here in Canada without even trying as one votes against something and not usually for it.
Outperformed, outmatched, and outnumbered, underestimated yet overwhelmed these federal Tories helmed by Harper do not yet see the depth of outright opposition not powered by any kind of political opponent, but rather by the overall populace and citizen base of Canadians themselves, who do not see a plan nor purpose behind this government other than reelecting itself for no reason deter but to be in power with those valuable perks of prestige and privilege in pocket for another four. Canadians are slowly looking to Mulcair and Trudeau on the question of leadership and economic stewardship, past someone who not only has a bachelors and masters degree in economics from the University of Calgary but who also has overseen a national economy for almost one whole decade, the advantage should be his and one that in such dire times and grim days ahead in all ways involving the dollar shockingly decidedly so yet here we are debating the very issue and looking to swap horses midstream which says quite a lot. Maybe it all is some kind of political gamesplay with a masterful check move by the prime master himself, perhaps it could be explained away by realizing this will be the longest election campaign we have ever had before federally, but I think quoating freely out from the original agreement in principle that united the federal Tories forgot to believe in Canada and their party itself "as the greater sum of strong parts" where its greatest strengths at times can also become its strongest weaknesses to finally become realized fully and likely paid dearly by those neverending campaigners who forgot to care about the eternal governance of this great dominion.
A majority government from a minority vote for the Harper Tories in 2015
For almost one whole decade, Conservative Stephen Harper has both led the federal Tories as its leader and the Government of Canada as its Prime Minister as the unlikeably bland chief policy wonk Reform loved him as so many years ago, his strong penchant to insist on absolute control and complete loyalty from all those around him allows for the kind of autocratic governing and management style that has kept the dominion going in the same direction as it has been these last ten years. That intensity which came with his perpetual campaign mode has brought with it a permanent electoral politics, where every governmental press release from any department within has a signature Harper Conservative stamp of approval somewhere upon it, that has moved past the compassionate and incremental conservatism of Preston Manning and Stockwell Day to a plain old pan Canadian multicultural conservatism beyond the core and deep into the culture of the nation at large. Canadianizing conservatism can now be seen as the main way Harper has been able to sell the ideology to its citizens, making the federal Tory brand as Canadian as Tim Hortons, Hockey Night in Canada, and the maple leaf just like the Liberals were only less than a decade ago, the key being owning the immigration vote where traditional moral values matter much more today than modern liberal democratic ones previously mainly due to an on going war on terrorism at the turn of the century as civil liberty and its rights ceded its sovereign power to national security and its responsibilities.
All of which then when added up, leads one to believe Canadian are headed for a majority government from a minority vote for the Harper Tories in 2015, especially with the Grits under Justin Trudeau and its formerly Big Red Machine consistently losing ground to the New Demos of Thomas Mulcair and their current Orange Crush that continues to gain steam across the country.
Trading in the federal issues of energy, ecology, and the environment for the economy, great recession globally, and a believed to be balanced budget locally, Harper has an electoral advantage over the others along with his long tenure governing the nation be it by minority or majority, neither Mulcair or Trudeau has that kind of experience going into an economic storm which seems to be set on coming our way despite failing at the pipeline with the United States, a free trade agreement with Europe, and watching our Canadian dollar become a more devalued currency than a Mexican peso. Love him or hate the Prime Minister, Harper with all his secrecy, informational direction and control, and micromanagement of electoral and governmental data seems to have a monopoly on the question of leadership, which leads one to believe we have left the bureaucratic era and have truly entered a technocratic age that Manning told us would come. From Reform to Alliance to Tory Harper holds true with this organizational structure and system of governance where jobs are given to all those who merit them and decisions are made upon knowledge only, quite a different Canada than one Trudeau and Mulcair envision, reminisce, and want Canadians to quickly return back to despite all the given proof today to the contrary, because at the end of the day slow and steady wins the race and as any good progressive conservative knows bland works in Canada.