Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Soo will definitely go Blue as the Ontario Tories take Sault Ste. Marie

Just as the Province of Ontario dislike Kathleen Wynne, the City of Sault Ste. Marie dislike Debbie Amaroso, with similar reasons being why Christian Provenzano is the Mayor now and Charles Sousa should be the Premier, but as former Liberal MPP David Orazietti looked to be replaced by Amaroso, a very strong Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario candidate there in Ross Romano, running along with him in the byelection are Ontario New Democratic Party candidate Joe Krmpotich, and the Green Party candidate Kara Flannigan, leading fringe with perennial Pauper John Turmel, Libertarian Gene Balfour, None of the Above Noneof Zabove, yet without a candidate from the Trillium Party candidate despite becoming the fourth party in Queens Park just last week amongst the fringe. Over half the general election vote makes up byelections, top issue for this byelection being the leadership of the Wynne Liberals and whether the Soo trusted it or wanted change has been the biggest talk on the street. The First of June seems more easy than most to call, as the Ontario Tories despite a hiccup losing a caucus member and under a dark cloud over talk of fixed nomination races still have the edge over the government of the day, so Romano will likely gain 40% and win the seat, this changes from third to first thus third becomes second being Krmpotich and the Neodemos place second with 30 percent of the vote, Amaroso and the Grits take up third with 20 in percentage, as Flannigan and the Greens finish with fourth at more or less than 2% for party funding, from the fringe I actually think the fight for fifth gathering less than 1% of the vote starts with the battle of the high profile odd names with None of the Above Zabove will get sixth and the Pauper Turmel seventh, while Libertarian Balfour ends out in eighth.

Sault Ste. Marie gives the Ontario Tories a foothold in the North to call their own, without this riding going into the general election next year it would be hard to believe they would even have a chance unseating the Grits from their powerbase in Toronto, as the Ontario Liberals will now have to divide its preelection spending not just in their Big City but also the Great White North.

A very old and tired message was flogged again by loyalists of Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals as their political team of Queens Park insiders tried all their very best to scare the votes out from the voters of the Soo, but it backfired as the ageist threats of not having experience at their cabinet table levelled by Amaroso towards Romano came back like a boomerang across the community, giving Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown and his party a boost from the byelection protest vote. Andrea Horwath and her Ontario New Democrats on their other hand must be feeling quite the opposite, being the former default vote for the people of Sault Ste. Marie being a riding for unionized labour, heavy metal, hard rock, and city of steel and iron, if they cannot win or even compete to win in such a region as this, any party has a chance to change the position of the current third party at Queens Park which opens up the opposition for the first time in decades. The government party is being protested again but not heavily enough right now, we have to wait under year to see just how much the present opposition parties which break from the Legislature and those outside the House in the future can gain in the next twelve months to see where exactly the Soo and the rest of you across the province are then.

Friday, May 26, 2017

Conservatives will likely stay Harperite Light with Andrew Scheer

Tons of politicos from all different colours and parties have been asking me what are my thoughts on the federal Conservative Party of Canada leadership race for 2017 and who do I think is going to win it all, pretty hard question to answer when this vote is not even a pure one member one vote styled rather equally weighted by electoral district riding 100 points allocated per. Thus in order to win the leadership race, a candidate had to receive at least 16,901 points being a pure majority of the points gather from the ranked ballot one member one vote basis, so again did not make the guesstimation of the occasion any more easier to get done. But then after striking out Kevin Oleary and then realizing we had to leave him in as he was on the ballot, I went on to add the next lucky thirteen as they appeared on the ballot being Chris Alexander, Maxime Bernier, Steven Blaney, Michael Chong, Kellie Leitch, Pierre Lemieux, Deepak Obhrai, Erin Otoole, Rick Peterson, Lisa Raitt, Andrew Saxton, Andrew Scheer, and Brad Trost, all of whom I will have now heard both at the debate back home in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound and there at the Toronto Congress Centre in Toronto.

Three major factors become obviously in play throughout the affair, first was whether the federal party wanted to run away from the shadow of their former leader and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper or emulate him once more which allowed for minor division between Progressive East and Reformed West members and their candidates, second was the new ideology going to remain similar being a balance carefully between fiscal and social conservatism with democratic reform and civil libertarian ideals mixed within or was the populist altright message against political correctness and forced immigration going to be another pillar within that mix, and third was major campaign issues with created splits and crisis such as supply management and traditional marriage created temporary voting blocs for those single issue voters which artificially increased and decreased the numbers for certain teams in the race.

Though Kevin Oleary was on the ballot, I knew he would come out below as he suspended his campaign the other 13 remaining leadership candidates who I list in order lowest to highest to be in the first round were Rick Peterson thirteenth at 0.1%, Andrew Saxton twelfth at 0.2%, Chris Alexander eleventh at 0.3%Steven Blaney tenth at 0.3%, Deepak Obhrai ninth at 0.5%, Lisa Raitt eighth at 1.5%, Kellie Leitch seventh at 6.5%Brad Trost sixth at 9%Erin Otoole fifth at 11%, Pierre Lemieux fourth at 12%, Michael Chong third at 15%Maxime Bernier second at 19%, and Andrew Scheer first at 25%. Let me explain them all now starting with Peterson to Obhrai as they were all fringe outback players adding up to 1%, Raitt carried some weight for double and a half of that, Leitch still had a huge Trumpesque altright following her around for more than half a decade in percentage, Trost carries that heavy socon burden that comes with about a decade percentage in support, Otoole just for being True Blue Ontario Tory get over a decade in percentage, Lemieux takes the flag, family, and faith crowd for over a decade in percentage too, Chong collects every Progressive Eastern vote available from Ontario to the Atlantic for a decade and a half percent, Bernier too picks up every single civil libertarian vote across the nation for almost two decade percent, and finally Scheer being Harper like as Harper Light from all True Blue Tories get two decades and a half percent from across the nation to make this vote go all the way to about 12. Knock off the last six candidates, Raitt vote goes to Chong for 16.5%+, Leitch vote goes to Bernier for 25.5%+, Trost vote goes to Scheer for 34%+, Otoole vote goes to Bernier for 36.5%+, Lemieux vote goes to Scheer for 46%+, Chong vote goes to Bernier for 51.5+, so theoretically Bernier edges out votes from Scheer but obviously 46 plus 51.5 does not make 100 and I think we are going to see a twelve round plus vote ending in between 45 and 52 for both that could very well become a 50.1% to 49.9% race between Scheer and Bernier with Chong, Lemieux, and Otoole being the kingmakers in the end of this shootout to replace Harper.